Clark County’s 3 Million Population Milestone Pushed Back 13 Years in New UNLV Forecast
LAS VEGAS, NV – Clark County is still expected to add hundreds of thousands of residents over the next several decades, but a newly released population forecast indicates that Southern Nevada may grow considerably more slowly than previously projected. The 2026 population forecast from the University of Nevada, Las Vegas Center for Business and Economic Research projects that Clark County will surpass 3 million residents in 2055. UNLV’s 2024 forecast placed that milestone in 2042.
That moves the anticipated arrival of Clark County’s 3 millionth resident back by 13 years. The long-range population estimate has also been reduced substantially. The new forecast places Clark County’s population at approximately 3.08 million in 2060, more than 250,000 residents below the level projected just two years earlier.
Clark County’s Population Forecast Has Changed Significantly
UNLV’s 2024 population forecast projected that Clark County would reach approximately 2.97 million residents by 2040, cross the 3 million threshold in 2042 and grow to approximately 3.34 million by 2060. The 2026 forecast lowers the estimated population throughout the long-term planning period. It now projects approximately 2.77 million residents in 2040, 3 million in 2055 and approximately 3.08 million in 2060.
| Population milestone | 2024 UNLV forecast | 2026 UNLV forecast | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projected 2040 population | 2,969,000 | 2,767,000 | 202,000 fewer residents |
| Projected 2042 population | 3,017,000 | 2,796,000 | 221,000 fewer residents |
| Year Clark County surpasses 3 million | 2042 | 2055 | 13 years later |
| Projected 2055 population | 3,258,000 | 3,002,000 | 256,000 fewer residents |
| Projected 2060 population | Approximately 3,337,000 | 3,079,000 | Approximately 258,000 fewer residents |
The revised figures do not predict that Clark County will lose population. Instead, they indicate that the county is expected to continue growing at a slower and more moderate rate than earlier forecasts anticipated.
Clark County Is Still Expected to Grow
The 2026 UNLV report lists Clark County’s 2025 consensus population estimate at approximately 2.47 million residents, an increase of 1.8 percent from the previous year. The county is projected to add nearly 40,000 residents in 2026, followed by approximately 40,000 in 2027 and 38,000 in 2028. The more pronounced slowdown is expected to begin in 2029. Annual population growth is projected to fall from 1.5 percent in 2028 to 0.6 percent in 2029 and then remain near 0.5 to 0.6 percent through much of the remaining forecast period.
| Year | Projected population | Annual increase | Projected growth rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2,465,431 | 43,746 | 1.8% |
| 2026 | 2,505,000 | 39,569 | 1.6% |
| 2027 | 2,545,000 | 40,000 | 1.6% |
| 2028 | 2,583,000 | 38,000 | 1.5% |
| 2029 | 2,598,000 | 15,000 | 0.6% |
| 2030 | 2,616,000 | 18,000 | 0.7% |
| 2035 | 2,695,000 | 15,000 | 0.6% |
| 2040 | 2,767,000 | 15,000 | 0.5% |
| 2045 | 2,841,000 | 15,000 | 0.5% |
| 2050 | 2,921,000 | 16,000 | 0.6% |
| 2055 | 3,002,000 | 16,000 | 0.5% |
| 2060 | 3,079,000 | 14,000 | 0.5% |
Why Did UNLV Lower the Forecast?
UNLV identified several demographic and economic factors behind the lower projections. These include declining birth rates, reduced domestic and international migration and a revised estimate of the number of retirees expected to move into Clark County. The forecasting model also incorporated updated employment data, national economic projections, planned transportation investments, anticipated hotel-room construction and known private-sector projects. The model was then recalibrated using more recent Clark County population and employment information.
| Factor | Effect on the forecast |
|---|---|
| Lower birth rates | Reduces natural population growth as the difference between births and deaths narrows and eventually becomes negative. |
| Lower domestic migration | Fewer people are expected to relocate to Clark County from other parts of the United States. |
| Lower international migration | Updated migration assumptions reduced the number of international residents expected to enter the county. |
| Revised retiree migration | Newer American Community Survey data produced lower estimates of future retiree migration. |
| Updated economic data | More recent employment, income and economic information changed the model’s assumptions about future growth. |
UNLV reported that net domestic migration into Clark County averaged approximately 31,000 people annually from 2016 through 2020. More recently, it measured net domestic migration of 5,078 in 2023, 11,931 in 2024 and 8,465 in 2025. Those figures suggest that fewer Americans are moving between regions generally and that Clark County is receiving fewer domestic migrants than it did during the years immediately preceding the pandemic.
Population Growth Will Become More Dependent on Migration
Another important finding is that Clark County is expected to reach the point where deaths outnumber births. UNLV’s current underlying REMI model projects that natural population change, defined as births minus deaths, will become negative in 2032. The previous version of the model did not place that transition until 2037. That does not mean the county’s total population is expected to begin declining. UNLV continues to project positive net migration throughout the forecast period. Once natural population change becomes negative, however, future growth will depend entirely on attracting more residents than the number leaving the area.
What the Forecast Could Mean for Las Vegas Rental Housing
Population growth is one of the principal sources of long-term housing demand. More residents generally require more houses, apartments and other rental units. A slower population trajectory could therefore reduce the rate at which new rental demand develops, particularly if residential construction continues at levels established under more aggressive growth expectations. The forecast does not indicate that demand for Las Vegas rental housing will disappear. Clark County is still projected to gain approximately 614,000 residents between 2025 and 2060. It does indicate that property owners, investors and developers should be cautious about relying on outdated assumptions of uninterrupted high-speed growth.
| Rental-market consideration | Potential implication |
|---|---|
| Overall rental demand | Demand can continue increasing as the population grows, but potentially at a slower rate than earlier forecasts implied. |
| New apartment construction | Supply growth will need to be compared carefully with the reduced rate of household formation. |
| Single-family rentals | Neighborhood, school access, property condition and pricing may become more important as renters have more choices. |
| Rent growth | Slower population growth could make sustained, marketwide rent increases more difficult when additional supply is available. |
| Property investment | Investors may need to place greater emphasis on property-specific income and expenses instead of assuming rapid appreciation or rent growth. |
| Property management | Accurate pricing, responsive maintenance and effective tenant retention may become increasingly important in a more competitive market. |
The Revised Forecast Is Not a Housing-Market Prediction
Population is only one variable affecting the Las Vegas rental market. Employment, wages, mortgage rates, home prices, household size, rental construction and the number of existing properties available for lease can all influence rents and vacancy rates. A slower-growing population can coexist with a strong rental market if homeownership remains unaffordable or housing construction fails to keep pace with household formation. Conversely, even continued population growth may not produce rapidly rising rents if the region adds apartments and rental homes faster than new households require them.
Long-range forecasts are also subject to revision. UNLV describes the report as a planning tool and notes that its long-term projections exclude short-term business cycles, seasonal changes, resource constraints and irregular events. Changes in employment, migration policy, major construction projects, water availability or the national economy could alter the outlook again.
What Las Vegas Rental Property Owners Should Watch
The revised forecast makes current market measurements more important, not less important. Rental property owners should monitor the relationship between population growth, new housing construction and the number of properties competing for tenants. Shelter Realty Property Management regularly publishes Las Vegas rental market updates examining lease prices, rental inventory and recent leasing activity.
- Active rental inventory and newly listed properties
- The number of homes leased each month
- Median and average lease prices
- Days on market for comparable rental homes
- Apartment and build-to-rent construction
- Employment and wage growth
- Domestic and international migration
- Home prices, mortgage rates and the cost of buying versus renting
Clark County remains a growing region, but the latest UNLV forecast represents a meaningful change in expectations. For Las Vegas rental property owners, the central takeaway is not that demand is ending. It is that future performance may depend less on rapid regional population growth and more on choosing the right property, setting a realistic rental rate and working with an experienced Las Vegas property management company to compete effectively for qualified tenants.
Methodology: Shelter Realty Property Management compared the final Clark County population projections published in UNLV CBER’s 2024 and 2026 population forecast reports. Differences were calculated by subtracting the 2026 projection from the corresponding 2024 projection. Rental-market implications are the company’s analysis and should not be attributed directly to UNLV.
Shelter Realty Property Management specializes in the areas of Henderson, Las Vegas and North Las Vegas, NV. Feel free to give us a call at 702.376.7379 so we can answer any questions you may have.
