What Impact Could the Government Shutdown Have on Mortgage Rates?
LAS VEGAS, NV – While they have dropped slightly in recent months, interest rates on mortgages still remain at historically high levels; however, as the Federal Government’s current shutdown drags on – fueled by the impasse between Republicans and Democrats on a new spending bill – experts have speculated its potential impact on home borrowing costs.
To save you the time, in summary, most economists and mortgage strategists cited in the Investopedia article expect little change in rates during the shutdown itself. Once the shutdown ends and data flow resumes, they anticipate a slight easing of rates (i.e. a downward move).
But speculation is just that – essentially a glorified theory – as the shutdown makes it more difficult to gauge the current status of the economy and, therefore, ascertain the direction mortgage rates may end up going in.
Yields on 10-year Treasury notes are what most heavily influences mortgage rates, and lenders base the pricing of their mortgage-backed securities (MBS) on the returns offered by competing government bonds, often bundling mortgages together to sell to investors. During a government shutdown, 10-year treasury notes are normally very coveted, resulting in more affordable lending rates due to notes’ rising prices and falling yields.
In addition, the hundreds of thousands of federal employees who are typically furloughed and not getting paid during a shutdown, and the delayed issuing of FHA, USDA, and VA loans – which are government-funded – in addition to federally-financed flood insurance could also cause rates to lower.
But shutdowns are unpredictable in terms of how they may impact mortgages, so there’s also the possibility that rates could swell once again, driven by factors such as credit and fiscal worries and economic uncertainty. Shuttered government agencies are also unable to release labor market and inflation reports, which have a large impact on investors, loan rates, and the overall economy.
One thing is for sure, according to Realtor.com senior economist Jiayi Xu- the longer the shutdown continues, the greater the economy – and lending costs – will be influenced, for better or for worse.
The longer the shutdown drags on, the greater its potential influence on markets and monetary policy decisions will be,” he said.
Shelter Realty Property Management specializes in the areas of Henderson, Las Vegas and North Las Vegas, NV. Feel free to give us a call at 702.376.7379 so we can answer any questions you may have.
Christopher Boyle is an expert investigative journalist for SEARCHEN NETWORKS® and reports for independent news and media organizations in the United States. Christopher keeps a keen-eye on what’s happening in the Vegas real estate market on behalf of Shelter Realty Property Management